Is American Power Waning?
Is U.S. power waning? From the treaty of Westphalia to today, dominant international actors—super or imperial powers—have risen, maintained dominance, and eventually fallen. As we look back in history we can see signs of when and why a nation state is in decline and the important role that institutions, international actors, and international relations have played in the rise, decline, and maintenance of a super power. This can be seen, for example, in the Roman and Ottoman Empires, the Spanish and English colonies around the world and the former Soviet Union, the leader of the communist bloc of countries. The length of the empires varied greatly with the Roman Empire lasting about 800 years, the British Empire about 300 years, and the Soviet Empire not even 50 years. There were many different reasons for the decline of these Super Powers and their roles in the world, but there were also similarities, which can be useful for analyzing today’s challenging international relations landscape.
In 2020 it is fair to ask questions such as: is the U.S. similar to these former Super Powers of the world? Is the U.S. facing an inevitable declining and waning future and what is the importance of international relations in such a dynamic? The question is timely because many people have recently compared the United States to those declining powers throughout history. There are many reasons for the decline of a Super Power. These experiences from the past of declining empires and countries can help to examine the current situation of the United States. First is the role of competition from rising Super Powers threatening and eventually overtaking an established Super Power. The second is problems that arise from internal strife and threats from factions destabilizing and weakening a Super Power from within, including economic decline. A last reasons to be discussed is how perceptions and misperceptions in international relations can negatively effect the Super Power and the role it plays in international relations. Within the reasons for waning power, the role and importance of international actors, institutions, and relations within them can impact, especially today,3 the rise and fall of Super Powers.
Dominant international actors have been constant throughout world history. Two for discussion here and that can help to examine the U.S. Super Power status and how it might continue to evolve are the examples of the Soviet Union and the British Empire. The British Empire lasted for more than 300 years. At t its height in the 18th century the Empire with its colonies in North America, the Caribbean, and India dominated much of the globe. International relations at the time was not the dominant reason why England rose to and maintained its empire, contrary to the U.S. example which is discussed below. That is to say, England grew and was dominant in spite of the international equilibrium at the time between England, Spain, France and the Flander countries. International relations at the time was more focused on preventing a Super Power from rising. It did this through constantly changing and shifting alliances among the major powers. This can be seen most clearly through the rise of Napolean and his continuous wars.
The decline of the British Empire was due to many reasons but especially two reasons mentioned earlier in this paper. First, the rise of a younger Super Power, the United States, and the decline internally from Great Britain’s poor economic performance beginning in the early 1900s and accelerating in the decades after WWII. International relations was a passive participant during this period maybe because the handoff from the English Super Power to the U.S. Super Power was a benign and smooth transition.
The Soviet Union and its Super Power Status began after WWII and came about immediately as a result of its destruction of the German Army and being in sole control of more than half of Europe at the end of World War II. The Soviet Union became an empire also as a defensive measure. It was twice invaded by Germany and its allies in the 20th century and was unwilling to cede total control back to those parts of Germany and Eastern Europe under its occupation. After losing more than 40 million inhabitants as a result of the two World Wars it was understandable that the Soviet Union would act in that way. It also was naturally in a leadership position of the Communist Bloc of countries in Eastern Europe because it had been the first country to have a communist revolution and adopt a communist economic and political system.
International relations played an important role in the development and maintenance of the Soviet empire until its unraveling in the early 1990s. The main international relations during this time was between the two Super Powers, the Soviet Union and the United States, and although there was a Cold War at the time, it never led to direct confrontation. It can be argued that the Cold War governed and constrained the behavior of the two Super Powers in this detente. The main demise of the Soviet Union was not because of the appearance of a younger Super Power, but rather similar to Great Britain’s economic decline. By the mid 1980s, the Soviet Union realized that it could not compete economically with the United States and the West and began economic reforms that eventually led to the demise of the Soviet Union.
The U.S has been one of the world’s Super Powers since World II, rivaled only by the former Soviet Union but today it is increasingly challenged by China. The U.S. Super Power status is the result of its military strength, its economic strength, its cultural strength, and its prominent role in international affairs. Militarily, the United States has an annual spending on the military of more than $700 billion, a sum that is more than the next 10 countries combined. Economically, at the height of its economic dominance in the immediate aftermath of post-World War II, U.S. GDP represented more than 30 percent of world GDP. Even today, with the rise of China and the strong economic development and growth of many other countries, the U.S. still accounts for about 24 percent of world GDP, with China second at 15 percent, and Japan third at 6 percent. Culturally, the U.S. influence is measured in terms of exports of cinema and plays, music, and social movements such as Black Lives Matter.
Politically, the U.S. has been the predominant influence in international relations since after World War II as leader of the Western Bloc countries against the Soviet Bloc of countries. The dominant international actors and institutions accepted the Super Power transition from England to the U.S. and the U.S.’s role in the Cold War and eventual defeat of the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the continued military, economic, cultural and political dominance of the U.S. made the U.S. a Super Power status in a way that some would argue no other empire has been able to match.
The U.S. Super Power status, however, is still being questioned and challenged. If it is true that U.S. power is waning then there are three possible ways to look at why that is, as discussed earlier. The first, is the rise of other nations. Is the fact that China is growing at an unprecedented rate harmful to the United States’ power around the world? History and international relations show that competition from a young, rising Super Power can have a strong negative effect on the established Super Power and the international world order and can eventually create conditions for direct conflict if international relations and systems are not strong enough to mediate conflicts between the two Super Powers. This was the case in the competition between England and Germany in the late 19th Century that eventually led to the war to end all wars, WWI. History also shows that it is difficult to avoid conflict between a rising Super Power and a declining Super Power that are not in the same international sphere of influence, as was the case with the U.S. and England.
The rise of China is creating a direct threat to the U.S. in terms of economic growth and China’s economic power against the U.S. and its growing economic alliances with other developing countries. The rise of China has been due to the government allowing the market forces to play out. It seems as though China will soon become the worlds leading economy. Many worry that China will soon be the world’s new Super Power and will have more influence over the world than the United Sates currently does. This can be seen through China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative in Eurasia, the Middle East and Africa. Economic power leads to military and political power. However, does China’s ability to grow have limits that the United States has not? China is run by a totalitarian government that does not allow free speech, free choice, or democracy to flourish. Is democracy so natural to human nature that any government that tries to suppress its citizens will not be able to endure for long as was seen in the Soviet Union? Also, China is still quite a poor country overall. Its economy while growing quickly still only produces 10,870 dollars per person compared to the U.S which produces 67,430 dollars per person.
The second possibility for the decline of the U.S. is due to internal conflicts and divisions. This theory believes that a Super Power usually does not fall directly from external threats, but rather they are weakened internally by domestic strife which eventually makes the nation vulnerable to external threats. This was the case to some extent with the fall of the Roman Empire. Internal weakness made Rome vulnerable to invasion from the northern tribes. Under this theory, the U.S. will not fall from the outside but only from within from the polarization, political issues, and economic troubles currently facing the U.S.
Anyone who lives in America can tell that America is becoming more and more divided along political, cultural, and religious lines. Bill Bishop covers this topic in his work. One example of this is called The Big Sort. This specific essay in American Polity talks about how Americans are moving to and living in places that have more people who agree with them on political and cultural issues. Over the past 30 years, red states have become redder and blue states have become bluer. Bishop believes that as Americans have separated themselves from those they disagree with, they have turned into tribes. Bishop states that:
“We now worship in churches with like minded parishioners, we join volunteer groups with like minded companions, and we read and watch news that confirms our existing opinions.” (Bishop, 563)
Are Americans losing the ability to have civil discourse with those they disagree? More importantly, will future elections become more divisive than ever? As political parties play more and more to their base they lose the ability to speak for the entire country. This internal polarization the United States faces could weaken its position in international relations and the global community. Why are Americans so intolerant for those that they do not like or agree with? The words of Abraham Lincoln seem more applicable to the situation in the United States since the civil war. He said, “ America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”
A reason for economic decline for the U.S. is the money it takes to maintain its empire. This is also a challenge in the U.S. with its military expansion around the globe. The Pentagon stated in 2013 that there are around 600 U.S military bases in other countries. This leaves an obvious question: Is America stretching itself too thin? It is very similar to that of Rome where the expense of having such a large military presence actually harmed the empire. Is America becoming too imperialistic and in fact an empire? Since America’s inception the U.S military has invaded 42 independent countries. This does not include countries that have been bombed or the U.S played a role in overthrowing another country. Not only does Americas imperialistic behavior harm foreign countries, soldiers, and civilians, it also harms the Americans at home. Costly wars force the United States to go deeper in debt and spend more and more money. For example, American tax payers have spent two trillion dollars on the Iraq war alone. In total the U.S has spent 6.4 trillion on its War on Terror.. At the same time many of America’s roads and cities are crumbling and not everyone has health insurance. Though the human lives lost in the wars are terrible, the financial costs can be extremely damaging as well.
Finally, is the decline of the United States due to its misperception of the world or by the world? Robert Jervis explains in Perceptions and Misperceptions in International Politics that when states make hasty decisions based on incomplete information and images that they have already perceived, the outcomes are often faulty. The world is a complicated place and we need those perceptions to make sense of it, but they also make us prone to mis-perceptions. In Perspectives of International Relations by Henry Nau we see how Great Britain made the threat from Germany worse by not seeing how their agreements with France and the Soviet Union played on Germany’s insecurities. (Nau, 141). Are we currently witnessing a similar episode with respect to the current U.S. policy toward China and the U.S.’s unilateral approach to international relations, or is this something which was long over due in order to strengthen and maintain the international order among nations?
The U.S. strength, economic and political, in the post- World War II period has slipped and its vision, especially internally, is now blurred. It is possible that the U.S. will follow in the footsteps of former international actors like the Soviet Union and Great Britain’s Empire. The U.S. faces challenges both internally and externally, but it can lead again even if some dominance fades. If the international systems and organizations support the ideal of democracy and freedom of thought and individual spirit, there is hope for a world where people can live with the openness and freedom that all human beings aspire. It will depend on something bigger than economics, military, or politics, it will be a resolve and desire for unity amongst humanity.
Bibliography:
Bishop, Bill. “The Big Sort.” The American Polity: The Lanahan Readings. Lanahan Publishers.
Baltimore, 2016.
Moisi, Dominique. The Geopolitics of Emotion: How Cultures of Fear, Humiliation, and Hope
Are Reshaping the World. Anchor Books. New York. 2010.
Nau, Henry R. Perspectives on International Relations: Power, Institutions, and Ideas. Sage. Los
Angeles. 2017.
